House Rules! We need to flip three seats

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What’s the likelihood of the election being thrown to the House for a decision?  If neither candidate gets a majority of the 538 electoral votes, the election of the President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) is needed to win. Senators elect the Vice-President, with each Senator having a vote. A majority of Senators (51) is needed to win. Fivethirtyeight says that there is some chance this could happen.

If that were to play out (269 each) how would that play out in the House?  Not well for Biden in the current House make up, even with Dems in a clear majority. What?! Each state delegation gets a single vote to determine the president. So, the half million residents of Wyoming get as much say as the entire 55 Million residents of California. Wyoming gets 100X the power of California in this scenario. Currently, the House delegations have a Republican majority in 26 states, vs. 23 states with a Democratic majority of delegates. Pennsylvania is a tie. In order for the House to vote in Biden, we would need to flip at least two states or more. We analyzed the composition of each state delegation to see which states would be easiest to flip, as well as which are most at risk of flipping back to red.

FLIPPABLE STATES

There’s also a promising opportunity to move Pennsylvania from a tie to majority Democratic. There are a couple paths here.  First: holding Susan Wild’s (PA-07) and Mathew Cartright’s (PA-08) seats are essential (both are rated Lean D). Then, we need to elect Eugene DePasquale in PA-10 (rated Tossup) or Christina Finello in PA01 (Brian Fitzpatrick’s old seat) – now rated a Lean R.

Two other states with a single seat each, could also easily flip: Montana with Kathleen Williams (rated Lean R) and Alaska (Rated Lean R) with Independent candidate Alyse Galvin.

There are some key contenders to flip to a Blue majority. One of the most likely to flip is Florida where we need just one seat. The path to achieve that includes: (1) protecting Debbie Murcarsel-Powell in the FL-06 (PVI R+6 and currently rated as a toss-up seat) and (2) getting Alan Cohn in FL-15 (also PVI R+6 and rated Lean R) across the  finish line.

AT RISK STATES

Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota may need some love.

Minnesota could flip red if we lose MN-07 (Incumbent Peterson, PVI D+12) , which is currently rated a Tossup. Also MN-02 (Incumbent Angie Craig, PVI R+2) whose race is rated Lean D.

Michigan could become a tie state.  Republican turned Independent Justin Amash is retiring and his district (MI-03) is currently rated Lean R.  Democrat Elisa Slotkin is in a tight race in her district (MI-08, PVI R+4). Her race is currently rated Lean D.  But there is potential to flip another seat — the MI06 (PVI R+4) is competitive.  Jon Hoadley is running against Republican incumbent Fred Upton and the race is currently rated Lean R.

Iowa also could become a Tie state if Rita Hart who is running in IA02 loses this open seat race.

To summarize, these are the most at risk House majority candidates and most consequential in the road to flip to majority states.

So what happens if the House has a tie (25 each)? Well, then they have to work on it until there is a majority. In the meantime, the Vice President, elected at the same time by the Senate will serve as the President.

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